Will Trump Succeed? – Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.

— The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.

— But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race.

Trump: A weak 2022, but promise for 2024

A week after the 2022 congressional elections, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. The former president will seek to replicate the trifecta of Grover Cleveland in 1884 (win), 1888 (lose), and 1892 (win).

His chances of winning the bet will be affected by at least two factors: his record in the elections just concluded and the institutional structure of the Republican nomination contest. The first will hamper his bid for power. The second may…

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