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Who will be the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in 2024?

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Will President Biden seek reelection in 2024? Will Donald Trump try for a second, nonconsecutive term? Is Ron DeSantis, the outspoken Republican governor of Florida, planning to run for the White House? Although the next U.S. presidential election is more than two years away, pundits are already speculating.

First-term presidents are usually their party’s nominee in the next election. Aside from that, however, conventional wisdom suggests it’s too early to say who the 2024 contenders will be.

We’re not so sure. We believe that even this early, we can gain insight into who the nominees will be by asking Americans the right question.

We ask a different question than do most pollsters

Most surveys ask who Americans support for president by having them choose from a list of prominent politicians. We take a different approach. Instead, we ask respondents to…

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