Trump Is the Bull. The 2024 Republican Primary Is the China Shop.


Scenario one is that Trump runs and wins the nomination. This is still, as of today, the most likely scenario. If and when he announces, he may just clear the field. But it seems increasingly likely that he won’t clear the field and that Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin and Mike Pence and perhaps others will run against him. If it’s a large enough multicandidate field, say seven or eight people, Trump retains the hold on his 30 or whatever percent of the primary electorate and wins multicandidate contests with roughly that percentage of the vote. Trump won a lot of primaries in 2016 with percentages in the low to mid-30s.

Thus 2024 would be like 2016 in that respect. But it would be different in one really important way. In 2016, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz and the rest of them mostly refrained from attacking Trump because they all assumed he’d fade eventually and each of them wanted…

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