The tricky business of making forecasts in an uncertain world

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It’s that time of the year when forecasts of how different investment asset classes are likely to perform during the year are made. Market insiders, as usual, are positive.

Real estate prices are expected to go up, as per owners of real estate companies and consultants, brokers and analysts. Stock prices are expected to go up, if one is ready to believe fund managers of mutual funds and analysts at stock brokerages, as well as big individual investors. Cryptos are also expected to do well, as per managers of crypto exchanges. Further, the economy is expected to do well, if one believes the economists who work for corporates, stock brokerages and the government. Being positive is part of being an insider in the business of managing what economist John Kay calls OPM or ‘other people’s money’. If any investment asset class does well, the…

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