The 2024 Republican race is no longer a slam dunk for Donald Trump

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A new national poll from The New York Times and Siena College released Tuesday — coupled with a few other recent developments — have made me reconsider that black-and-white answer.

In the poll, Trump led a hypothetical 2024 GOP field with 49%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 25%. No other potential candidate — including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley — received double-digit support.

All told, nearly half of those who said they plan to vote in the 2024 Republican primary preferred a candidate other than Trump. (Sidebar: Joe Biden’s numbers on that question are even worse.)

And among those who voted for Trump in 2020 and had a “very” favorable opinion of each of the contenders — effectively a measure of passion from the party base — Trump (46%) and DeSantis (44%) had almost identical numbers.

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