Special election poll in New York bellwether district points to GOP wave

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Republicans are poised to flip a swing House seat in upstate New York in a Tuesday special election, according to a new survey from a liberal polling outfit that shows the Democratic nominee trailing by 8 percentage points.

The Data for Progress poll, conducted Wednesday through Monday, showed Republican Marcus Molinaro, a Dutchess County executive, beating Democrat Pat Ryan, an Ulster County executive, 53% to 45% in New York’s vacant 19th Congressional District, with just 2% undecided. Such a lopsided outcome after a campaign in which the candidates have battled over abortion rights, in a swing seat President Joe Biden won by 1.5 points in 2020, could portend big gains for Republicans in the November midterm elections.

Democrats have argued that voter angst over the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health…

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