Political notes: House races by the numbers, green group’s birthday, Bill Ferguson at a crab house, targeting Black male voters, and Hogan in Vegas

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The cake at the Chesapeake Climate Action Network’s 20th anniversary celebration Thursday night. Photo by Josh Kurtz.

Everybody has a theory, or a gut feeling, or an armload of statistics, to tell them how the race for control of Congress is going to go — and whether Maryland is going to play a role in determining whether the Democrats cling to their slim House majority or whether Republicans make big gains.

Our sense for a while is that Maryland will keep its 7-1 Democratic edge in U.S. House seats, despite the 6th District becoming far more competitive and despite good challengers emerging who are making three other entrenched incumbents — Reps. Andy Harris (R), Dutch Ruppersberger (D) and John Sarbanes (D) uncomfortable.

The latest analysis to back up our theory comes from the Daily Kos, which looked at all 435 congressional…

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