Malinowski’s most effective strategy: Run against Jim Jordan, not Tom Kean, Jr.

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The recent redistricting of New Jersey’s Congressional map appears at first glance to have vastly increased the chances of Republican State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. unseating Democratic 7th district incumbent Congressman Tom Malinowski in the 2022 elections. In the 2020 campaign, Kean only lost to Malinowski by one point in a district Joe Biden carried by 10 points.  This time, Kean will be running in a reconstituted district that Biden only won in 2020 by four points, still a Democratic lean in 2022, but much less than in 2020.

Accordingly, conventional wisdom has it that Kean is a highly likely 2022 winner.  He almost won in 2020 by garnering a major Democratic crossover vote.

Kean will need a much lesser crossover vote to win in 2022 than he did in 2020.  And it is true that in 2022, Tom Kean, Jr.  remains a most attractive candidate for a Democratic voter seeking to…

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