President Trump & 2020 Voters — The President Needs His Numbers to Improve

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President Donald Trump listens during a Cabinet meeting in Washington, D.C., January 2, 2019. (Jim Young/Reuters)

Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.

The final polls in Michigan in 2016 put Hillary Clinton ahead by 4 to 5 percentage points, and Trump won by three-tenths of one percentage point. The final polls in Pennsylvania in 2016 put Hillary Clinton tied to leading by 4 points, and Trump won by seven-tenths of one percentage point. The final polls in Wisconsin in 2016 put Hillary Clinton ahead by 6 to 8 points, and Trump won by seven-tenths of one percentage point.

The good news for the Trump reelection campaign is that that they can feel reasonably optimistic that Trump will outperform the final polls conducted before Election Day 2020. The bad news is, we…

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